One study predicts that lightning strikes nationwide will increase 12% for every degree Celsius of global warming. “My best guess is that by the end of the century - if we continue to burn coal and fossil fuels - we anticipate an increase of the number of lightning strikes by 50%.” “The evidence from looking at climate models is that we can expect that lightning will increase,” said David Romps, who directs the Berkeley Atmospheric Sciences Center and co-authored the study. Other studies over the past three decades have predicted similar effects of climate change. One study predicts that lightning strikes nationwide will increase 12% for every degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over the 21st century if people keep emitting planet-warming greenhouse gases at the current pace. It’s starting to look like a preview of the future: As climate change continues to alter the landscape, particularly in the West, scientists warn that lightning strikes capable of igniting wildfires are expected to multiply. Last September, lightning ignited a nasty, fire in groves of ancient sequoia trees in Sequoia-Kings National Park.Īnd now, a cluster of 12 lightning-sparked fires is burning in the Six Rivers National Forest east of Eureka, forcing evacuations in parts of Trinity and Humboldt counties. Five simultaneous lightning-sparked fires destroyed thousands of homes and buildings and claimed the lives of at least seven people. In August 2020, a remarkable barrage of lightning in Central and Northern California spawned more than 15,000 strikes over a few days, igniting more than 600 fires and burning more than 2 million acres. Instead, their primary concern is that lightning, slashing down in remote areas, can trigger unseen fires that smolder for days before they flare up, bursting into a dangerous and difficult-to-fight wildfire. The worry is not being struck by a bolt, although it can be deadly. Wildland firefighters don’t admit to fearing much, but lightning is one terror that even the most experienced veterans say they hope to never encounter. Fire officials are bracing for the worst as scientists predict that climate change could cause more lightning strikes, which often ignite deadly, unpredictable and remote wildfires in Northern California.
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